100 Words

OK, you’re given 100 words or less to use to present your most important thought or thoughts on nanoscale materials or molecular manufacturing to the following:

The UN
A group of grade school students in Japan
A meeting of UAW members

What do you say? The same message for all, or one for each?

What is your message or messages?

Listen to them

What would you do?

What would you do if someone presented you with convincing evidence that something catastrophic (1) was about to happen to the human race, and that unless your country spent billions of dollars on technologies to defeat said catastrophe, you and your way of life could literally become a thing of the past (e.g. everyone dies or is reduced to a state of universal extreme poverty)?

You have probably read about the possibility of a killer meteor strike between 2026 and 2028 (2). How much would you be willing to authorize your government to spend if we learned definitively that it was going to strike? If this or any other meteor or comet was on a collision course with Earth would you authorize $1 trillion to save the planet? $100 billion? $10 billion? (3). And consider that this is but one of many known civilization-ending events.

A different but no less frightening possibility

What would you do if someone presented you with convincing evidence that a technology that is being marginally funded today might present the same catastrophic potential as one of the well known civilization-ending events?

What would you do if someone presented you with convincing evidence that a technology that is being marginally funded today may yield the greatest gifts that humankind has ever received?

What if you learned that they were one in the same…

Molecular Manufacturing (MM) has the potential to be either; destroyer or savior. Many learned, credible and respected people honestly believe that MM is one of if not the most important things humanity should be focused on, immediately, if not sooner. They base their belief on hundreds of years of collective research and collaboration into one or more areas pertaining to MM. And the best they can say at this moment is “We don’t know when MM will happen. There are, however, several paths leading to it, and we’re pretty sure that one will succeed, and within the next couple decades. We’re also not sure of it’s impact, but we believe that either extreme is possible. We also believe that one of the more favorable futures could happen if we start discussing MM, now. With input from a much larger group of stake holders (RR note: that’s you and I and all of us folks) a few core groups should be able to find a good path, provided modest funding.”

With $10 billion you could fund an aggressive MM R&D program; a program that helps us learn more about how we can steer clear of the dangers, and that helps us realize the grand vision. And, possibly, one that in a few short years answers the most fundamental question "what needs to be done to help us realize one of the best futures?"

So now we come to the point of this post, the tip of the nanotube if you will, and the Question: “If any one of many potential civilization-ending events was in the works or about to happen, and if you would authorize the spending of billions of dollars to spare us from it, why not at the very least give these learned, credible and respected folks an honest listen regarding MM? If they’re right, then we have to consider spending those dollars, and the sooner the better. So ask them questions of your own, right here. Assert your stake holder obligations and participate!

And yes, listen to their critics, especially those that engage in honest debate.


Learn more about MM at:
The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
The Foresight Nanotech Institute
Preparing for Nanotechnology


Full disclosure: I happen to believe that should the well-defined stepping-stone technologies receive enough funding, molecular manufacturing is in our near future (5 to 25 years). I also believe that without extensive preparation and planning, things could go horribly wrong.

When might MM happen? Who knows. I wouldn’t be surprised if by 2012—especially given the possibility of existing unknown programs—and I would be surprised if not by 2030. We are an ever-inquisitive bunch of caffeine injected monkeys, sticking our tool wielding hands into and prying open the secrets of the universe with mad abandon; sometimes succeeding beyond our wildest imaginings, and sometime… not. I’d be very surprised if we didn’t crack this nut, soon.

I also happen to believe that we’ll choose one of the paths that leads us to universal abundance, where no one is lacking for their basic needs. Those needs include adequate food, safe water, a clean environment, housing, medical care, education, public safety, fair labor, unrestricted travel, artistic expression and freedom from fear, tyranny and oppression. I also believe that MM will enable humankind to realize it’s dream of traveling to the stars, and will allow for a world where we work only to follow our passions, while enabling us to live longer, healthier, and more productive lives.


(1) Meteor or comet strike, Yellowstone magma pool erupts, the once in a thousand-year tsunami, monster earthquake, etc. “These are risks that would imperil humankind as a whole and/or have major adverse consequences for the course of human civilization.” From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. link

(2) “The risk of an impact by asteroid 2004 MN4 went up slightly on Saturday, Dec. 25. It is now pegged at having a 1-in-45 chance of striking the planet on April 13, 2029. That's up from 1-in-63 late on Dec. 24, and 1-in-300 early on Dec. 24. Astronomers still stress that it is very likely the risk will be reduced to zero with further observations. And even as it stands with present knowledge, the chances are 97.8 percent the rock will miss Earth.” Source: Space.com

See also link. An example of what might happen if we got hit by a meteor the size of the moon. (RR note: I included this one because it is an interesting video)

(3) As of 2000, there were at least 7 countries with a GNP of $1 trillion or more, and 6 more at $500 million or more. So it is very likely that a $1 trillion investment would be authorized to prevent a civilization-ending event.

Nanotechnology Q&A, Pt I ~more

“If you had the attention of the entire world, what would you say regarding molecular manufacturing?”

Important discoveries and radical breakthroughs are happening now with molecular manufacturing. For instance, a fairly advanced form of DNA nanotechnology is being created (DNA origami, Ned Seemans Work).

Analog superconducting quantum computers will be released next year by Dwave systems. Quantum computers will be very useful for molecular simulation which will in turn drive the science and development even faster.

Radical breakthroughs are possible and need to be part of the planning and funding process. If you or your country are only backing incremental gains then you will fall behind. You need an entrepreneurial minded approach, and "out-of-the-box thinking" engineers and scientists who will find ways around the many challenging hurdles to radical breakthroughs.

Funders need to consider the following:

1. More focus needs to be on molecular manufacturing efforts with the greatest potential. For instance, Freitas and Merkles work on Diamondoid Mechanosynthesis holds great promise. There is a high percentage chance that molecular manufacturing will generate a great deal of societal change; from aggressive adoption and super-fast roll out of lightweight materials in cars and other products where weight and strength are primary factors.

2. Create a portfolio of advanced technologies that include a large portion - 15-25% - that shoot for radical breakthroughs in life extension, regeneration, extending human capabilities, revolutionary energy sources and space access.

Winners in molecular manufacturing will have been aggressive and creative.

~Brian Wang, Futurist, advanced nanotechnology blog

MM: yes or no

As with most other "future technologies," when it comes to MM, folks have different opinions. Some say “recent developments suggest that yes, it will happen, sooner rather than later, and we need to start preparing, now,” and others say “ain’t no way no how, never ever going to happen.” Some say “we’re hurtling towards our collective deaths on a high speed runaway locomotive called science,” and some “MM will herald the greatest and most profound change in humankind, ever.”

Do you have an informed opinion on the matter? Are you willing to back it up with facts and/or informed speculation in an open debate? Then here is your invitation; reply with a comment.

Nanotechnology Q&A, Pt I ~more

“If you had the attention of the entire world, what would you say regarding molecular manufacturing?”

Future generations of nanotechnology will use advanced nanoscale machinery to construct powerful products with molecular precision. Molecular construction will lead to advanced capacities, such as tabletop fully-automated factories capable of constructing duplicate factories in less than a day. The economic, security, military, and environmental implications of molecular manufacturing will be extreme. Vicious cycles in any of these areas could spiral quickly out of control unless the problem has been studied and understood in advance. Extreme or hasty responses to developing problems could easily make things worse.

Based on a recently released US National Research Council study, increased funding of research leading toward exponential construction of atomically-precise products appears to be a strong possibility. The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology urgently recommends equivalent funding and priority for research into the profound societal and environmental implications of molecular manufacturing, including consideration of the most aggressive potential timelines and powerful capabilities.
~Mike Treder, Executive Director, Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Nanoscale Materials Q&A, Pt I

Following on the heels of yesterday's Q&A on molucular manufacturing is the same basic Q, this time presented to prominent members of the nanoscale materials community "If you had the attention of the entire world, what would you say regarding nanoscale materials?"

Nanoscale materials will be the building blocks of the 21st century, but you'd have to be crazy to start a nanomaterials company. Why? Well Michael Dell didn't need to make microprocessors to build a computer business, and the key to adding value is always in the application, not the material, the silicon, not the sand.

By 2010 we will see a new wave of nanotech-based innovation based on the availability of high quantities of well characterised, high quality nanomaterials produced by the worlds leading chemical companies, not the few grams being produced by most nanotech startups. The time is ripe for exiting nanotech companies - I'm working on an ever increasing number of acquisitions and there is plenty of money there for the right technologies, but the spending spree won't last.

~Tim Harper, CEO, Cientifica

Nanoscale materials have the potential to solve the world's energy, pollution, and water problems - at least for this century - and possibly the world's food problems and taking a big bite out of global warming.

To achieve this goal will require (i) more experimental research on the activity of various materials at various scale levels and in various combinations (ii) robust computational models that can predict the behaviour of materials & combinations of materials at various scale levels and (iii) robust manufacturing technologies that can deliver cost-effective nanoscale materials in the quantities and of the quality required for targeted applications.

My take is that we may achieve these goals in the 2020 - 2030 time period.

~Bo Varga, Managing Director, Silicon Valley Nano Ventures